For years, owning land in New Zealand, particularly undeveloped or underutilised land, wasn’t just about potential. It was about scarcity. Planning rules were the safety net. Land-banking worked because restrictive zoning and slow councils kept supply tight and options limited, a structural strategy born out of economic pragmatism.
But those days are numbered.
In his speech to the Local Government NZ Conference today, Housing Minister Chris Bishop declared war on the idea that urban land should remain artificially scarce. He spoke of “smash[ing] the urban limit” and resetting market expectations of future scarcity. The Minister is done talking. He’s legislating.
If you own land with development potential (fringe, infill, or near transport nodes) this is your moment. And if you’re waiting for the next election to make a move, you may already be too late.
“The speculative premium on land scarcity is no longer your hedge,” says APIA General Manager, Sarina Gibbon, “it’s your expiry date. Either you extract value, or someone else will.”
Upward and Outward: The Dual Playbook
Minister Bishop made it clear: this government isn’t choosing between intensification or greenfield. It wants both.
That opens dual opportunity streams for land investors:
- Greenfield and fringe land: Expect new infrastructure funding tools, zoning liberalisation, and less resistance to suburban sprawl. The edge of town is about to move.
- Urban and transit-connected land: Standardised zones, density uplift, and removal of bespoke plan restrictions make it easier to build up—and build smart.
The idea is to replace piecemeal, parochial planning with national direction that enables growth rather than throttling it. Think fewer overlays, less bespoke nonsense, and faster pathways to activate the land you already own.
The End of Passive Scarcity
At the heart of the Minister’s speech is an uncomfortable truth for landowners:
“We are not interested in tinkering. We are building a planning system where growth… is not just allowed – it’s expected.”
The investor who simply sits on land waiting for time and scarcity to do the heavy lifting is no longer protected by the system. In fact, they may be left behind by it.
Why? Because:
- Zoning restrictions are being centralised and stripped back
- Infrastructure funding will shift towards user-pays models
- Local councils are being bypassed with ministerial override powers
- The government is actively trying to kill the idea that land is scarce
And remember: when scarcity disappears, so does the premium.
What This Means for APIA Members
If you’re holding land, here’s what you should be doing now:
- Review every title in your portfolio. Look at zoning, overlays, proximity to public transport, and existing infrastructure.
- Understand how the proposed national planning framework could affect your site. Assume less local friction and more central direction.
- Engage proactively. The Minister wants to hear from stakeholders. If you’ve identified restrictive plan provisions that should be removed to unlock development potential, write to us at admin@apia.org.nz so we can engage productively with the Minister.
- Revalue your land based on buildability, not scarcity. Because that’s where the future uplift lies.
A Word to the Hesitant
APIA’s recent survey of over 2,200 landlords found that more than 80% are waiting for next year’s election before making big moves.
Let’s be blunt: waiting may cost you.
Government is telegraphing its next move in bright, bold letters. It is not asking for permission. It is forcing the market to catch up to economic reality.
Like it or not, you do have to operate in this system as it continues to unfold; election or no election.
The Bottom Line
Scarcity is being removed as a structural feature of the system. That means if your investment thesis relies on zoning inertia and local government delays to boost land value, it’s time to move on because the opportunity window has just been flung open.
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