The market has tilted toward tenants. Nationwide, about a third of new tenancies are being signed below the outgoing rent, with the largest decreases in Auckland and Wellington. That does not mean the whole market is sliding. The other two-thirds are holding or rising, depending on suburb, property type and presentation. Headlines talk in averages; your business runs on specifics. As discussed in this morning’s RNZ interview, capability beats hope.
Mindset shift: service first, balance sheet second
When supply runs hot, presentation and clarity decide who gets applications. Write listings that answer tenant questions. Use crisp photos and accurate floor plans. Price off live comparables, not last year’s asking rents. Where it helps, offer tenant-favourable terms that are lawful and time-bound. Cover internet for twelve months, include water, or offer a professional clean at renewal. Document everything.
Strategy shift: build portfolios for cashflow durability
Policy is nudging toward more supply and slower house-price inflation. More homes, faster consenting and less reliance on asset inflation to make the numbers sing. Over a long horizon that puts the weight back on cashflow. The centre of gravity shifts from speculative uplift to durable income. Operate accordingly.
What to implement this week
- Win at the listing stage: refresh photography and copy. Lead with what renters value: warmth, storage, transport, schools and running cost. If high-quality enquiries don’t land within 7–10 days, move decisively rather than nibbling downward.
- Engineer value, lawfully: use time-bound incentives to break ties among comparable listings (12 months’ internet, water included, or a modest rent credit for on-time payments in the first quarter). Keep terms simple and in writing.
- Compete on speed: offer same-day viewing slots, provide a clear application checklist and commit to a 24–48 hour approval window for complete applications. Friction loses good tenants.
- Retention over re-letting: start renewal discussions eight weeks out. Pair modest, evidence-based rent reviews with visible maintenance: heating performance, appliance upgrades and storage solutions. Vacancy is the most expensive line item you control.
- Fortify the balance sheet: hold a three-month expense buffer per tenancy. Re-underwrite each property at conservative rent and 2–4 weeks’ planned vacancy per year. If it doesn’t pencil on today’s rent, fix the plan before the market fixes it for you.
- Invest where it sticks: prioritise upgrades that reduce operating cost or raise tenant stickiness: insulation performance, efficient heating, durable flooring, low-maintenance landscaping and secure storage.
Bottom line
One-third down does not define the market; it highlights the spread. Focus on your business, not the headline. In a tenant-leaning phase and a policy environment that tolerates slower house-price growth, professionalism is the moat. Deliver a better service, move faster than your competition and build cashflow that survives weather, not forecasts. Do the basics beautifully. Hold your nerve. When the cycle turns, you’ll own better assets and better tenancies, with more options than the landlords who tried to wait it out.
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