House prices are more than a median: how to read the market’s real signals
Most investors see the median house price and think they’ve got the market’s story. The truth is, that figure only tells part of it. If you look beyond the median into how prices and sales volumes move together, you can spot market conditions with surprising clarity. July’s REINZ data for Auckland shows that certain sub-markets are building liquidity before prices turn. That is an early signal worth understanding if you want to negotiate well and buy with conviction.
In July, three Auckland sub-markets stood out: Waitakere, Rodney and Manukau. Each posted month-on-month sales gains with softer or flat prices, according to the REINZ July 2025 NZ Property Report.
The Auckland region overall sits on 48 days to sell, which is higher than the 10-year July average of 41 days. Inventory has tightened to 29 weeks, which is 11 fewer than a year ago. That means fewer listings, little urgency, and pockets where liquidity is building. This combination is rare and it can be used to your advantage.
Sarina Gibbon, GM of APIA, says “Most investors treat the market like a weather app, they check the temperature and forget the forecast. The real money is made when you spot the shift in the wind before the rain hits.”
Why this matters and how to use it
- Liquidity without urgency equals negotiation power
Auctions are quiet and most sales are by private treaty. In the volume-led pockets, vendors are meeting the market but buyer competition is not intense. Use time as your leverage. Negotiate longer due diligence, sharper finance clauses, and price adjustments for insurance or maintenance issues. - Know the difference between momentum and a head fake
Papakura and Franklin recorded price jumps but falling sales. That is a fragile setup. Do not buy into these areas until volumes confirm the trend. Thin liquidity makes it easy to overpay. - Investor pullback is an opening
Across Auckland, first-home buyers, upsizers and developers are most active. Investor activity is lower. That reduces competition for rental stock. If you have been priced out before, this is the time to check the numbers again.
The playbook: buy the volume, avoid the hype
Best opportunities:
Waitakere – Strong sales growth with a small price drop. Family homes in reliable rental areas may be undervalued.
Rodney – Sales are up, prices are down. Land-bank opportunities and properties near transport links deserve another look.
Manukau – Healthy sales with flat pricing. Focus on durable rental areas with steady tenant demand.
Smart screening:
Days on market filter: Target listings that have been on the market at least 45 days. Auckland’s median is 48. Extra time gives you more room to negotiate.
Auction filter: Look for auction listings that failed to sell and were re-listed as price by negotiation. These sellers have tested the market and know the reality.
HPI check: Auckland’s house price index is still about 23.6% below peak. Do not pay a future price for today’s property.
Offer tactics:
Keep your price firm but offer certainty. Clean conditions and short finance approvals make you more attractive without paying more.
Present two offers. One at a lower price with quick, clean settlement. One slightly higher with vendor contributions for needed work. Let the seller choose.
Where to tread carefully:
Papakura and Franklin – Price gains with weaker sales. Treat with caution and use recent sales data, not old highs.
Core premium areas (Auckland City, North Shore) – Prices and volumes are softer. Only buy here if you get a clear discount or a property with unique value such as zoning or school access.
Sarina adds, “If you only hunt for bargains where everyone else is looking, you’re not hunting, you’re queueing. The trick is to buy when the market is politely ignoring the good stuff.”
Bottom line
The median price tells you only part of the story. By watching how prices and sales volumes move together, you can find where liquidity is coming back before prices shift. In July, that was Waitakere, Rodney and Manukau. Use longer days on market and quiet auction rooms to your advantage. Avoid areas where prices are up but sales are down until demand proves itself. In a market with fewer listings but no rush to buy, the patient negotiator will outperform.
Want sharper tactics, suburb-level data and a community that shares real numbers? Join APIA to buy with better information and more confidence.
This article is not investment or financial advice. Investors are recommended to seek personalised financial advice on an as-needed basis.
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