Aftershock: What the Iran Conflict Means for Your Property Portfolio

Here’s what most people get wrong about war and property: They think the explosion is the event.

It’s not. The explosion is just the thing that makes the news. The event, the real one, is everything that happens after. The aftershock. The policy response. The rate decision nobody expected. The recession that showed up 18 months later wearing a disguise.

Remember COVID? In March 2020, property prices dipped and every commentator alive predicted a crash. What actually happened? The OCR got slashed to 0.25%, capital growth surged 25% in twelve months, and people who waited got priced out. Then came the hangover: inflation, rate hikes, a per-capita recession that’s shrunk the economy nearly 5% since 2022.

Nobody predicted that sequence. Not in real time. Not while they were living through it.

Now here’s the thing about the Iran conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world’s oil used to flow freely, is effectively paralysed. Crude has spiked 80% since the conflict began. Countries are imposing fuel export restrictions to protect their own supply. And New Zealand? We closed our only refinery. We have roughly seven weeks of fuel in storage. We’re an island at the end of the world’s longest supply chain, and right now, that supply chain has a knot in it.

You might have noticed this event is online, not in our usual venue. That’s not a coincidence. With fuel prices surging across New Zealand, the cost of simply driving to a meeting has itself become a symptom of the very forces we’re here to discuss. The war is already changing how we operate. The question is: what else is it about to change?

That’s what this session is about.

Nick Goodall is the Head of Research at Cotality NZ (you know them as CoreLogic) and co-host of The NZ Property Market Podcast. He’s the person the banks and the media call when they need someone to make sense of the numbers. He doesn’t do panic. He does pattern recognition. And the patterns are fascinating.

What You’ll Walk Away With

• The domestic market snapshot – Where the NZ property market actually sits right now: prices, volumes, buyer composition, and what the data was telling us before the world caught fire. Because you can’t assess damage if you don’t know the baseline.
• The pattern book – How the NZ property market has reacted to every major geopolitical shock since the Asian Financial Crisis. The 9/11 response. The GFC. COVID. Ukraine. What happened, what the RBNZ did, and how long recovery took. History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes. And the rhyme scheme is surprisingly consistent.
• What’s different this time – The Iran-specific factors that make this event unique: the oil shock, NZ’s post-Marsden Point fuel vulnerability, the export restrictions already hitting global supply, and the contrarian argument that all of this might actually be good for mortgage rates.
• The aftershock forecast- Nick’s read on the short, medium, and long-term impacts for NZ property investors. What to watch. What to ignore. And the uncomfortable parallel with COVID that nobody wants to hear but everybody needs to.

This is not a doom-and-gloom session.

This is a “know-before-they-know” session. Don’t optimise your decisions for the wrong time. Leave it to other investors to optimise for anxiety and doom-scrolling oil prices. This session will give you the advantage you need to be better than that.

Except this time, you don’t have to wait for the aftershock to figure out what hit you.

Register now

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Non members can register here.