Policy might be shifting …
It’s recently been announced that the Government – or Winston Peters more specifically – has come back to the idea of softening the Foreign Buyer Ban. Currently, anybody without citizenship or a residency visa is unable to purchase NZ property, unless they’re Australian, Singaporean, or investing in large-scale developments (or are prepared to go through the OIO process).
So what’s on the table now? There’s still a lot of uncertainty, but it would appear that the ban will be softened before or at the time of the next Election in late 2026, with foreign buyers potentially able to look at properties above, say, $5m, and presumably with a tax or stamp duty payable. Previously, this was proposed to be a 15% charge, on property above $2m.
A few points to note:
- It’s always felt a bit strange lately for the Government to be courting wealthy foreigners (e.g. with ‘golden’ visas) to come and invest in NZ, but not let them buy a house – this change would remove that contradiction.
- Foreign buyers have never had a huge influence on NZ’s housing market; even in ‘peak’ years before the ban, they only accounted for 1–2% of activity—though their impact may have been greater in high-end markets like Auckland and Queenstown.
- Post-2018, their influence has been negligible. Stats NZ no longer even tracks their activity.
- The last proposed change was about boosting tax revenue. This time, it seems more about promoting NZ as a destination for foreign capital.
So what’s the net result? It’s likely the ban will be softened. National and ACT already supported this direction, and NZ First appears to be shifting its stance. But don’t expect a market-wide boom—$5m is a steep threshold, and most buyers (and investors) operate well below that line.
…. but the market itself isn’t
Stepping back from policy, what’s actually happening on the ground? It’s still flat. Yes, sales volumes are rising, but that’s from a low base in 2022–23. They’ve only just normalised in recent months.
As sales rise, listings are starting to drift lower, but remain high—so price growth is muted. The Cortality Home Value Index rose just 0.6% in the first half of 2025.
For buyers, however, conditions are ideal. First home buyers continue to hold near-record market share. Investors—especially “Mum and Dad” types—are cautiously re-entering, favouring affordable existing stock and new-builds alike. Flat markets tend to reward strategic, long-term thinkers. Right now, they’re the ones quietly making moves.
Kelvin Davidson
Kelvin is the Chief Property Economist at Cortality NZ.
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